An impact of atmospheric and climate changes on the energy potential of Russian forest resources

Biofuels are an important source of energy, currently providing about 10% of the world energy demand, including 2% of power generation and 2.5% of liquid fuel consumption. Wood fuel in Russia is one of the most affordable and most important source of renewable energy resources. In this paper, the possible changes of energy potential of the forest resources of Russia induced by changes in the atmosphere composition and climate are studied. The estimates of changes of the global carbon dioxide concentrations and mean annual air temperature across the Russian territory for the period up to 2050 are presented, simulated using global carbon cycle model and regional climate model developed in MPEI. It is projected that the change of net primary production of Russian forests due to an increase of CO₂ abundance in the atmosphere and raising both air temperature and precipitation will increase available energy resources of wood fuel at the mid-century by up to 30% or more than 9 million tce/year.