Results of engineering geological zoning of Belarus territory by the abrasion risk at water reservoirs in the context of global climate change

The paper shows the reasons for the intensification of risk-forming processes in Belarus caused by "aging" of existing and the arrangement of new water reservoirs. The shores of new reservoirs located in the territory of Belarus, intensively used in the national economy and densely populated, are actively reprocessed by abrasion, leading to the development of abrasion risk. The length of the abrasion coasts has increased by more than 20 km recently, which undoubtedly has an impact on the surrounding areas, causing loss of land and economic facilities. The goal of the work is to update the regional zoning of the country's territory according to abrasive risk, which should be taken into account in the forecast calculations of the sustainable development of regions based on entirely new principles and assumptions.

In this work, we used the data of long-term (covering more than 40-year-long period) field observations of the author over the abrasion process and the results of a science-based analysis. We propose (using the failure tree) an abrasion risk development model and indicators characterizing the abrasion risk, taking into account the global climate change and related warming, affecting the dynamics and extent of the process of destruction and deformation of the coast. Based on a theoretical study of the mechanism for forming the dynamic equilibrium profile of abrasion coasts and the equilibrium coastline, a criterion is suggested that characterizes the stability and development of the equilibrium profile of the coastal slope required for zoning the Belarus territory by abrasion risk.

Based on the generalization of the observation results for Belarus water reservoirs and the use of the proposed indicators, we performed zoning of the country’s territory by the abrasion risk, which is of practical importance for making management decisions and designating engineering measures to prevent and mitigate risk in water bodies, as well as minimizing their effects.