Results of engineering geological zoning of Belarus territory by the abrasion risk at water reservoirs in the context of global climate change

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Abstract

The paper shows the reasons for the intensification of risk-forming processes in Belarus caused by "aging" of existing and the arrangement of new water reservoirs. The shores of new reservoirs located in the territory of Belarus, intensively used in the national economy and densely populated, are actively reprocessed by abrasion, leading to the development of abrasion risk. The length of the abrasion coasts has increased by more than 20 km recently, which undoubtedly has an impact on the surrounding areas, causing loss of land and economic facilities. The goal of the work is to update the regional zoning of the country's territory according to abrasive risk, which should be taken into account in the forecast calculations of the sustainable development of regions based on entirely new principles and assumptions.

In this work, we used the data of long-term (covering more than 40-year-long period) field observations of the author over the abrasion process and the results of a science-based analysis. We propose (using the failure tree) an abrasion risk development model and indicators characterizing the abrasion risk, taking into account the global climate change and related warming, affecting the dynamics and extent of the process of destruction and deformation of the coast. Based on a theoretical study of the mechanism for forming the dynamic equilibrium profile of abrasion coasts and the equilibrium coastline, a criterion is suggested that characterizes the stability and development of the equilibrium profile of the coastal slope required for zoning the Belarus territory by abrasion risk.

Based on the generalization of the observation results for Belarus water reservoirs and the use of the proposed indicators, we performed zoning of the country’s territory by the abrasion risk, which is of practical importance for making management decisions and designating engineering measures to prevent and mitigate risk in water bodies, as well as minimizing their effects.

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About the authors

V. Е. Levkevich

Belarus National Technological University

Author for correspondence.
Email: eco2014@tut.by
Belarus, pr. Nezavisimosti, 65, korр. 1, Minsk, 220013

References

  1. Kasperov, G.I., Levkevich, V.E., Pastukhov, S.M., Kukshinov, M.S. Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po otsenke riskov na isskustvennykh vodnykh ob’ektakh Respubliki Belarus [Methodical guidelines for risk assessment in artificial water bodies of the Belarus Republic]. Minsk, Pravo i ekonomika, 2007, 63 p. (in Russian)
  2. Kobyak, V.V. Prognoz abrazionnykh protsessov na vodokhranilishchakh s transformirovannym urovennym regimom [Prediction of abrasion processes in reservoirs with transformed level regime]. Extended abstract of Cand. Sci. (Techn.) Dissertation. Minsk, Belorussk. nats. tekhn. univ., 2013, 22 p. (in Russian)
  3. Levkevich, V.E. Gidromorfodinamika pribrezhnoi zony vodokhranilishch GES Belarusi [Coastal zone hydromorphodynamics at the reservoirs of Belarus HPPs]. Minsk, Pravo i ekonomika, 2018, 149 p. (in Russian)
  4. Levkevich, V.E. Dinamicheskaya ustoichivost’ beregov i vodokhranilishch Belarusi [Dynamic stability of water reservoir shores in Belarus], Minsk, Pravo i ekonomika, 2015, 307 p. (in Russian)
  5. Levkevich, V.E. Dinamika beregov ruslovykh, nalivnykh i ozernykh vodokhranilishch Belarusi [Dynamics of the coasts of the river, bulk and lake reservoirs of Belarus] Minsk, Pravo i ekonomika, 2015, 202 p. (in Russian)
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  7. Maksimchuk, V.L. Ratsional’noe ispol’zovanie i okhrana beregov vodokhranilishch [Rational use and protection of reservoir banks]. Kiev, Budivel’nik, 1981, 112 p. (in Russian)
  8. Mikhnevich, E.I., Levkevich V.E. Ustoichivost’ beregov vodokhranilishch pri formirovanii profilya dinamicheskogo ravnovesiya v nesvyaznykh gruntakh [Stability of reservoir banks during the formation of dynamic equilibrium profile in incoherent soils]. Melioratsiya, 2016, no. 4 (78), pp. 18–23. (in Russian)
  9. Mikhnevich, E.I. Novye tipy kreplenii meliorativnykh kanalov [New types of strengthening amelioration channels]. Minsk, Uradzhai, 1978, 128 p. (in Russian)
  10. Pyshkin, B.A. Dinamika beregov vodokhranilishch [Dynamics of water reservoir banks]. Kiev, Naukova dumka, 1973, 416 p. (in Russian)
  11. Shirokov, V.M., Lopukh P.S., Levkevich, V.E. Formirovanie beregov malykh vodokhranilishch lesnoi zony [Formation of shores at small water reservoirs in the forest zone]. St. Petersburg, Gidrometeoizdat, 1992, 160 p. (in Russian)
  12. Shaitan, V.S. Proektirovanie kreplenii zemlyanykh otkosov na vodokhranilishchakh [Design of anchorage of earthen reservoir slopes]. Moscow, Gosstroiizdat, 1962, 215 p. (in Russian)

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
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1. JATS XML
2. Fig. 1. Processing of the banks of channel reservoirs: a - Soligorsk, b - Vileika reservoir (photo by V.E. Levkevich, 2017)

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3. Fig. 2. Processing the shores of the Lepel reservoir of the lake type (photo by V.E. Levkevich, 2016)

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4. Fig. 3. Processing the banks of the Yelsky reservoir of a bulk type (photo by V.E. Levkevich, 2016)

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5. Fig. 4. Subtypes of abrasive shores: a - abrasion-scree; b - abrasion-landslide; in - abrasion-landslide.

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6. Fig. 5. Zoning of the territory of Belarus by the value of linear processing of coasts and deformations of soil slopes of dams and dams [4].

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7. Fig. 6. Averaged anomalies of the average annual surface air temperature for the territory of Russia, the Northern Hemisphere and the globe [3, 5].

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8. Fig. 7. The “fault tree” scheme for assessing the likelihood of abrasion-processing of coastal slopes [5].

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9. Fig. 8. Zoning of the territory of the Minsk region the largest territorial risk of abrasion: a - administrative map of the Minsk region; b - an electronic map of abrasion risk.

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10. Fig. 9. Scheme of the acting forces on the soil element in the underwater shallows.

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