The issue of transboundary water use as a cause of existing and potential regional conflicts

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Abstract

The main purpose of this article is to highlight the increasing significance of water scarcity as a factor in international relations and geopolitical influence/dependence among states. The study is based on one of the aspects of the global freshwater scarcity – transboundary water use. The causes of international tensions and conflicts arising from the uncoordinated use of water resources of transboundary hydrological objects are considered. The study emphasizes the increasing value of freshwater as a vital resource and the increasing limitations on access to water sources due to economic development, climate change, and demographic shifts. Areas with a high probability of international conflicts caused by uncoordinated water use in key transboundary water bodies are identified. The article provides a detailed analysis of the causes and prospects of both existing and emerging regional conflicts driven by transboundary water use issues.

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About the authors

Andrei A. Sizov

Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

Author for correspondence.
Email: Sizov010@yandex.ru
SPIN-code: 2516-6951

Cand. Sci. (Eng.), PhD student

Russian Federation, Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Most likely conflict zones in river basins: 1 – Tijuana River, Colorado (USA–Mexico); 2 – Rio Grande River (USA–Mexico); 3 – Narva River (Estonia–Russia); 4 – Ural River, Tobol (Kazakhstan–Russia); 5 – Irtysh River (China–Kazakhstan–Russia); 6 – Syr Darya River (Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan–Kazakhstan); 7 – Amu Darya River (Tajikistan–Uzbekistan–Turkmenistan); 8 – Indus River (India–Pakistan); 9 – Euphrates River (Turkey–Syria–Iraq); 10 – Jordan River (Syria–Israel–Jordan); 11 – Nile River (Sudan–Egypt); 12 – Lake Chad (Chad–Cameroon–Nigeria–Niger)

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