Ontological Basics for Classification of Historical Cycles

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Introduction

The specifics of historical knowledge differ from the modern understanding of scientific knowledge, which is based on experiments and modeling techniques that allow highly accurate predictions. Current and previous chronological systems best describe and measure the natural cyclical patterns in which time appears as a result of spatial positions. These patterns have a major impact on all human activities. However, they do not serve as a meaningful measure of historical processes. The move toward a topological understanding of time offers the possibility of identifying and explaining development mechanisms common to different types of activities, including historical development.

Research Methods

The topological approach to time processes, unlike the metric approach, implies a series of intervals of different quality (not identical points in time) and a meaningful hierarchy. “Topology is interpreted as a historical classification of a process, as a sequence of different-quality states of the system we have identified. It is in this sense that it is permissible to suggest <...> a topological – qualitative – classification – holistic – systemic synonymous series” [12, p. 115–116]. In biology, these stages of varying qualities in the embryonic development of poikilothermic animals were identified by K. E. von Baer (1792–1876). The universality of the general developmental model was revealed in relation to the time coefficients that determine the duration of the developmental stages of individual species [17].

This study employs ontological modeling techniques to construct ancient models of existence. Mainly applied to the solution of contemporary problems in the field of human activity (both individual and collective), this method is a functional topological method in which the basic functions of a particular stage are determined by its position (Greek τόπος ― “place”) both within a particular cycle and the position of that cycle in relation to a higher-level cycle within a particular ontological model. The overall expression of these provisions is an ordinal value of the stage defined. Initially, this method was implemented in literary texts, making it possible to reveal the details of narrative cycles with 64 and 72 elements [7]. Moreover, this method has also been applied to the development principles of physical space (sectoral model of functional zoning) [14; 16]. In this study, a functional topological approach is applied to historical time [8]. The object of this analysis is geopolitical processes from the 1st–21st centuries. The object of analysis is the final stage of the great cycle of historical development, which includes a geopolitical period of 45/90 years 32 years representing the first (individual) developmental stage of the cycle of cognitive activity of 64 years, and a 72-year cycle of fundamental changes in self-perception and political orientation.

Historical Background

Humankind has been concerned with the question of time at every stage of its development. A vivid example is the accuracy of measurements and calculations of the movements of celestial bodies and, accordingly, ancient calendar times. The first philosophical justification for time was provided by Aristotle, who related motion suitable for measurement to the daily rotation of the 8th and final celestial sphere, the stellar sphere. Newton appeals to a certain external basis on which the scale of time appears relative to the concept of uniform absolute time independent of the movement of matter. However, despite the achievements of scientific and philosophical thought of the 19th–20th centuries, as I.A. Khasanov: “...there is still no answer to the question of what we measure when measuring time, that is, the question of the ontological foundations of time remains unresolved” [17, p. 7].

The identification of astronomical cycles has occurred at every stage of human existence. It is noteworthy that the cycle of the eight elements is a measure of many processes in the formation of complex cycles. Therefore, the ancient Chinese annual cycle was divided into eight periods of 45 days and five sacred days, which concluded the year. On the other hand, in ancient Rome, the week had eight days, with a total of 45 days. In ancient Greece, various cycles were based on octaeterids (i.e., eight-element “a generalization of the octaetheride is the 16-year cycle, eckedecaetheride” and 160-year cycle are attributed to the outstanding Alexandrian scientist Eratosthenes (c. 276 – c. 196 BC) [10, p. 90–91].  A more accurate 19-year cycle, discovered by the Greek astronomer Meton in 432 BC and also used in China from the 6th century BC, represents a combination of 8- and 11-year cycles, while the 11-year one was considered as a combination of a 3- and 8-year cycles: “19 = 8 + 3 + 8” [10, p. 91]. Such combinations have the eight-element cycle as their basic principle and demonstrate the special status of the eight-element model. Considering the eight elemental nature of most creation myths and the eight divisions of Prakriti, the natural and transcendent principle of ancient Indian Saankhya (i.e., philosophy of numbers), this article performed a qualitative interpretation of the stages. The cycle of eight elements of the creation myth applies to various types of human activities [8]. Ancient Indian cognitive models and historical processes have an equal number of stages. This includes four stages (epochs) of descending development and four ascending stages. Simultaneously, as in the Carnot cycle (thermodynamics), the middle of the cycle is characterized by maximum compression, and the object of “compression” is time and the possibilities of perception. Maximum cognitive ability is measured in four periods (Skr. satyayuga “age of truth”), for example, thousands of years, and the minimum value is 1 (Skr. kaliyuga, kali is “aspect of age” dies at 1 point; quarrel, discord”). Considering the transition period ([0.4 +4 + 0.4] + … + ([0.1 +1 + 0.1]), which allows the transition from the ideal scheme to real-time and the ascending phase of the cycle, a 24-element cycle. A similar structuring of historical processes was conducted by D.V. Denisov used the example of a 240-year cycle from 1804 to 2044 [8], which was also considered in the identification of four 60-year cycles. Historically, the 60-year astrological cycle began in ancient China around the 26th century BC based on counting time in cycles (“At first it was used only for counting days, a little later it began to be used for counting years”) [10, p. 194]. In modern India, the year is traditionally divided into six two-month seasons.

The theory of cycles is being actively developed in economics. A statistical confirmation of the 60-year cycle of market fluctuations was first made in an article by N.D. Kondratiev’s Great Cycles of Conjunctions (1925). The monograph of the same name (1928), written in collaboration with D.I. Oparin, is based on statistical material from the United States, Germany, England, and France since the Industrial Revolution. Kondratiev (1898–1938) defined this cycle as a major economic cycle lasting from 47−60 years, a minor cycle (Kitchin cycle) from 3−5 years, and a medium cycle of economic and cultural development from 7−11 years (the “industrial capitalist cycle”) [11; 13].

These data are broadly consistent with the concept of cosmic determinism proposed by A.L. Chizhevsky, considering solar activity cycles comparable in duration to those mentioned above (11, 58, and 6000 years) [18]. During the solar cycle, a moderate increase in background radiation increases the vitality of organisms, while low or high intensity inhibits its development. In years of moderate sunlight, more gifted people are born than in the years of passive sunlight, by an average of 10%, whereas the overall birth rate across the phases of the 11-year cycle does not change. The biological effect of ionizing radiation on the manifestation of talent increases with an increase in the concentration of oxygen in the blood, which in turn increases with an increase in atmospheric pressure. Epochs of long-term reduced activity in the 6000-year cycle are accompanied by the emergence and development of many progressive phenomena. An example of a strong fertility peak is 460 BC and 1480 AD, separated by 2000 years. The former resulted in Greece’s highest prosperity in 420–430 s BC, the revolution in ancient Greek philosophy, the spread of Zoroastrianism in Mesopotamia, Buddhism in India, and Taoism in China. The result of the latter was the apogee of the High Renaissance around 1510, when art and science received a new impetus, humanism, and utopian socialism emerged, and great discoveries were made. Examples of stagnation in social life and cultural development include the height of Rome (100 AD), which gave rise to the beginnings of mysticism and fanatic Christianity, the sabotage of the achievements of early ancient culture, and the height of the Middle Ages (1200 AD), which was characterized by the Mongol conquests and crusades that occurred at that time [2; 3].

One of the most notable landmarks in the dynamics of historical development is armed conflict. These frequencies most often attract the attention of researchers. This concept originated from the German scientist E. Sass, presented in the “Prussian Statistical Journal,”and was endorsed by E.P. Blavatskaya references this in her article “the theory of cycles,” but unfortunately, it has not yet been discovered. E. Sass established periodic patterns in the occurrence of armed conflicts, illustrating cycles lasting 1000, 100, 50, and 10 years. For the five largest centers of antiquity (Eastern, Central, Western Asia, Western and Eastern Europe, Egypt), a 250-year cycle is proposed as the most significant. In Europe, starting from 1700, a war or revolution occurred every 10 years at the time of this study (the end of the 19th century). “The periods when European forces displayed the most destructive energy are marked by a cycle lasting 50 years” (cited from [1, p. 348–349]). Therefore, in 1712, all European countries fought (Northern War, Turkish War, War for the Throne of Spain), and around 1761, a similar situation arose again (Seven Years’ War, Napoleonic Wars in 1810).

Research Results

The vague nature of the lower limit of the large economic cycle (ranging from 47−60 years) allows for two interpretations. According to the first interpretation, it genuinely refers to one cycle, which is considered in development. However, in this case, it is significant to explain why its duration either decreases or increases. According to the second interpretation, the lower limit may belong to or be close to one cycle, and the upper limit may belong to another cycle. The second interpretation assumes a function and, if possible, ontological justification for at least two distinguished cycles. An analysis of current processes becomes possible when we consider not only the stages that complete the cycle but also those in its middle part.

The specificity of the 45-element period is explained by the ancient Indian myth about the creation of a Vastu Purusha Mandala with 45 elements representing a model of spatial organization and harmoniously combining diametrically opposed forces. According to legend, the powerful creature Vastu-Purusha, in its attempt to devour all the worlds, was thrown to the ground face down in battle. It was permanently crushed by 45 gods and demons who, despite their previous feuds, united for this purpose [15] This myth parallels the stage of “Reunion of /opposites/” ─ the 45th stage in the Chinese “Book of Changes.” The myth symbolizes the embodiment of order, commonly understood in the sense of the ancient Cosmos. This myth was reflected in the real-world events of 1945 when countries with  diametric opposed political systems political systems united to destroy the “demon” of fascism. The San Francisco session of the UN (April 25 to June 26, 1945), coinciding with the entrapment of Berlin and the meeting of Soviet and American troops on the Elbe, witnessed the participation of a comparable number of delegations, with 46 invited, although not all participated in the conference opening.

The model of Vastu Vidya, the Indian science of construction and ritual consecration of sites and buildings, takes the form of a square with 32 fields symbolizing the “phenomenal contour of reality.” Drawing a comparison with the anatomical structure of the human spine, this formation is suitably termed the “skeleton of spatial formations.” The central part of the Vastu mandala comprises 13 fields, including a) five large central fields reflecting the division of the transcendental principle into stages that provide space for all development, while the transcendental itself remains beyond the scope of this development; b) eight diagonal small (single-cell) fields forming a transcendental matrix used to master each of the five stages (5 ∙ 8 = 40 + 5) [5; 6]. In some cases, 40-element formations hold significance, such as day 40 in a memorial rite, a 40-minute school lesson, and the temporal measure “40 x 40.” Consequently, 45 days is the maximum period of medical quarantine.

The peculiarity of 45-element formations lies in their connection to the 60-ary number system, whereas when forming pairs, they create 90-element cycles. Examples of such formations include the deep sleep cycle lasting 90 minutes and the duration of study sessions in higher educational institutions (45 + 45 = 90 minutes). In addition, the 90-year cycle includes three 30-year periods, correlating with the 60-year astronomical cycle.

The specificity of the 90-year cycle lies in the suppression of spontaneous forces that inflame wars. This cycle is exemplified by two events: the signing of the Prague Peace Treaty in March 1856, which marked the conclusion of the Crimean War (1853–1856), and the eradication of fascism in 1945. This war, known as World War Zero, was waged against Russia by England, France, the Ottoman Empire, and the Kingdom of Sardinia, and it included military operations in various regions including the Caucasus, Danube principalities, Baltic, Black, Azov, White, and Barents Seas, as well as in the lower reaches of the Amur, Kamchatka, and the Kuril Islands. The Swiss campaign led by A. Suvorov (September 10−27, 1799) had a 90-year time difference from the Battle of Poltava (June 6, 1709), just as the Russo–Japanese War (January 27, 1904, to August 23, 1905) had a 90-year gap from the Paris Peace Treaty (1815). Regarding the 90-year rhythm, the collective West’s declaration of a total sanctions war on Russia in February–March 2022 was preceded by a global economic crisis, reaching a particularly acute phase in 1929–1933. However, this crisis did not affect the USSR, which was experiencing a period of powerful industrial and economic growth.

The consideration of the 30 years as a form of functionally complete integrity has gained relevance in the context of the 30 years since the collapse of the USSR and the establishment of the CIS. December 2023 marks the end of a comparable 30-year period because of the founding of the European Union. In connection with the events of 2022, ideas about cyclic processes and process algorithms have been enriched with the introduction of the concepts of the “thirty-year period” (from December 8, 2022) and the “eight-year period” (relative to the Nazi coup in Kyiv on February 21, 2014). Regarding the 32-year Zoroastrian calendar, it became possible to interpret the concept of the “thirty-year period” precisely as a 32-year cycle. P. Globa draws attention to the fundamental difference between the collectivist 12-year cycle of Jupiter’s revolution around the Sun, which forms the basis of the 60-year Asian calendar cycle, and the 32-year calendar, which measures the stages of self-knowledge and the disclosure of human creative potential [4, p. 418]. The ability to implement a similar algorithm in a calendar month supports the 32-element interpretation. An example of this is found in one of the ancient Indian calendars, where “the duration of two summer months reached 32 days, while the two winter months reached 29–30 days each” [10, p. 206].

The transition from the 30−32-element model is described in detail in the ancient Chinese Book of Changes, which dates back to three millennia of formation and commentary. The first 30 out of the 64 stages of cognition in the Book of Changes constitute the period of formation of the subject of cognition, and stages 31 and 32 form the transition to social practice, which harmonizes previously accumulated experience and new acts of cognition [9, p. 390], where stage 31 is characterized as “Interaction” and 32 is “Permanence / of agreements /” (compared to the harmonizing function of two additional eons in the concept of 30 divine eons of Valentine). Subsequently, at stage 33, there is a short delay, a respite before the start of the socialization period, which constitutes part 2 of the cycle.

In current events, the focus is on the national republics of the former USSR, on one hand, some of these republics have grown increasingly anti-Russian (Baltic countries, Ukraine). On the other hand, some countries have followed the path of integration (CIS member countries). Regarding the Book of Changes, uncontrolled individualization is restricted to 30 stages. The distinctly different directions of these two processes have manifested in the form of a Special Military Operation aimed at liberating the Donbas republics. The stage of “Interaction” has been influenced by these opposing trends. The anticipation is that agreements, specifically the stage of “Permanence /of agreements /” (stage 32), will only be reached within the considered cycle of the period from December 8, 2022, to December 7, 2023.

Starting from November 1, 1993, the European Union is currently in stage 29, which is characterized as the “Abyss” or “Double Jeopardy” (BC-29). This stage holds special relevance in the context of the energy crisis and the critical decline in production. The European Union is anticipated to progress to stages of interaction and achieve permanent agreements in 2024 and 2025. In the broader 90-year rhythm, interaction with the collective West, including Great Britain and the United States (comparable to the condition in 1945), is projected to become possible by 2035.

In the context of the 32-year cycle, the concept of “eight years” can also be understood. Key milestones in the first 32-year period, following the Book of Changes, occur in the 8th, 16th, 24th, and 32nd years. To illustrate, we examine the formation of Soviet power and the Weimar Republic in Germany. The first eight years of Soviet power, starting with the events of the February Revolution (1917–1924), witnessed the consolidation of I.V. Stalin’s influence and the defeat of L.D. Trotsky at the 13th Congress (December 1924). In parallel, the first eight years of the Weimar Republic (1918–1925; declared on November 11, 1918) in Germany were marked by the Bamberg Conference of the Nazi Party (February 14, 1926). One of the conference/s objectives was to establish Hitler as the sole, absolute, and unquestionable authority within the party, whose decisions were final and not subject to appeal. In the Book of Changes, the 8th stage is defined as “Approaching / the king or the subject of knowledge to the conquered area” (BC-8). This underscores the importance of timelines, as being late is deemed equivalent to defeat.

The second eight-year period (1926–1933) in Germany was distinguished by the appointment of Hitler as Chancellor of the Reich of the Weimar Republic on January 30, 1933, and the consolidation of the NSDAP as the dominant party. In this context, the Book of Changes characterizes the 16th stage, “Liberty” (BC-16), as a stage where nothing impedes the manifestation of activity from within, except self-discipline. It emphasizes, “But if such liberty is not limited by anything from the outside, then it still must be limited by itself, otherwise it risks turning into chaos.” The essence of this stage is summarized in the phrase: “Liberty. Favors the enthronement of feudal lords and the movement of troops” [9, p. 331–332].

Stage 3 concludes in the Weimar Republic in 1941, which corresponds to the “Return” stage, the 24th stage in the Book of Changes. This marks the initiation of the opposite action, launching the inevitable process of normalization. The spatial analogy employed illustrates: “The newly obtained hexagram symbolizes that the time when, after the darkest time of the year, after the time preceding the winter solstice, the light begins to arrive again and a return to the bright half of the year occurs. At first, this return of light is barely noticeable: in the graph, the only line of light is at the very bottom; it is covered by all the forces of darkness. But it is it which is aimed at its further development. Moreover, its development is so inevitable that the forces of darkness cannot hinder it. On the contrary, they only contribute in every possible way to the development of light” [9, p. 361].

The Soviet government entered the Great Patriotic War at the “Immaculate” stage (BC-25). This is a stage that “is not predisposed to immediate taking any action,” emphasizing the importance of steadfastness and truthfulness [9, p. 365]. In 1942, the war coincided with the stage of “Education by the Great” or “Great Education” (BC-26). The following year, 1943, found itself at the stage reflecting a gap between the higher and lower stages, where self-reliance becomes crucial as no external help is available (BC-27). In addition, 1944 marked the stage of concentration of power, where the weakness of the final structural elements persisted (BC-28). The stage known as the “Abyss,” characterized by double danger (BC-29), manifested itself in 1945. Military operations continued on the Far Eastern front, and plans for military actions against the USSR were devised by the United States and Great Britain, including the involvement of captured Wehrmacht forces (the “Unthinkable” plan). Most importantly, the USSR faced the imminent threat of atomic bombing from the United States.

In the case of the Nazi coup in Kyiv on February 22, 2014, post-Soviet Ukraine entered the “Destruction” stage (CP-23) in its history, beginning from December 18, 1991. This stage followed the “Decoration” stage, which correlated with 2013 and marked the beginning of the Ukrainian Euromaidan on November 22, 2013. The dDecoration stage is characterized by “development limited to minor, purely external innovations that do not introduce anything new in essence. These innovations are described as a bright decoration that has lost its former value” [9, p. 353]. This characteristic is also noted in the context of European integration, where “external innovations contribute nothing in essence.”

The stage of destruction (BC-23) as applied to the Nazi coup occurs “when all attention is focused on something external, everything associated with the essence itself recedes into the background. <…> The beginning of any decline is the destruction of the essential. <…> the last remnants of light, activity, and positivity are receding into the past, and only darkness is approaching. And it approaches from inside, from the very essence. <...> the process of cognition itself recedes into the background and, without developing progressively, ends in destruction” [9, p. 357]. The Book of Changes warns that “If perseverance is neglected, disaster will occur.” At this stage, the crisis “has already acquired inertia, due to which it is impossible to stop it. <...> It should be remembered that in such a period of breaking down previous achievements, one cannot remain steadfastly unchanged, but through the destruction itself, one must break through to the possibility of new creation” [9, p. 358–359]. While the trends of destruction will weaken, a way out of this situation is only possible with outside help; in current events, help was received from Russia: “Serious and active intervention on the part of humans itself is still impossible here. He will spend his time having fun and can only quit this situation thanks to patronage. <…> But in order to overcome destruction, active, creative moral forces of man are required. If they are present, a noble person will learn a very significant lesson from the experience. A despisable person, one who has not developed the courage necessary to overcome this destructive situation, will not be able to resist him/herself and will be forced to endure the fullness of destruction” [9, p. 360–361].

In this study, the focus is on the first half of the 64-year cycle, specifically the 32-year cycle of individual development. Within this cycle, individuals can significantly influence large communities and entire countries, thereby shaping changes in geopolitics.

The 64-year cycle is a perfectly structured pattern. Extending beyond this cycle by adding another eight-year cycle brings about fundamental changes in self-identification, political direction, etc. These changes result from the involvement of ontological structures that underpin self-identification and world perception, as represented by the eight diagonal fields in Vastu mandala.

A traditional example of a 72-year cycle is the period of communist ideology in Russia (1917–1989). Another striking example is the century of female rule, which began with the accession of Catherine I (1725–1727) to the throne, including the reigns of Anna (1730–1741) and Elizabeth (1741–1762), and ended with the reign of Catherine II (1762–1796). Elizabeth II’s reign in England lasted 70.5 years (February 6, 1952 to September 8, 2022.

The 72-year cycle played a decisive role in the relations between Prussian Germany and Austria. In 1866, Prussia, led by Minister-President Otto von Bismarck, after victory in the seven-week Austro-Prussian-Italian (German) war against Austria, secured a leading position in the new structure of Germany without Austria. This cycle ended in 1938 with Austria’s annexation to Nazi Germany.

This can be supplemented with the example of the transition of Ukrainian nationalism to dynamic actions in 2013–2014, parallel to the events of 1942–1943, i.e., 72 years later. In October 1942, the “First Military Conference of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (b)” took place, during which a decision was made to reorient itself from Germany to the Western allies. From February 17–23, 1943, the third conference of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (b) was held, where it was decided to initiate an armed struggle against the Nazis, Poles, and Soviet partisans.

In general, the considered 60-year, 45, and 90-year cycles (aimed at overcoming the elements of war), as well as the 72-year cycle of change in self-identification, can be combined into a rhythmic formation of a larger order. Thus, the 72-year cycle contains twelve 6-year (average) periods, and the 720-year cycle, accordingly, involves twelve 60-year cycles.

Conclusions

This study examined the requirements of the theory of cycles, explaining the complex nature of the current political and geopolitical processes of the early 21st century. The lower limit of long economic cycles was interpreted concerning the 45-element ontological model of the world order in the Indian Vastu Vidya, forming the basis of the 90-year geopolitical cycle. The internal dynamics of the development of participants in geopolitical interactions were described within the 32-year cycle, which is a part of the 64-year cycle. It was established that disturbances in this endless cyclical development are provided by the action of the matrix of this development, which is implemented as an additional eight-element cycle, transforming the 64-year cycle into a 72-year one. A logical and rhythmic relationship between 6- and 60-year rhythmic formations and the 8-element development matrix was established for the 72- and 720-year cycles. It follows from the above that the ontological modeling method is promising both for completed and current historical cycles and for determining development prospects.

About the authors

Denis V. Denisov

Author for correspondence.
Email: denisansk@gmail.com

Candidate of Culture Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Linguistics

References

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