Vol 60, No 2 (2024)

Based on ensemble calculations with the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6) climate models and using Bayesian averaging, an analysis was conducted on the changes in the 21st century runoff of several Russian rivers – the Volga, Ob, Yenisei, Lena, Amur, and Selenga. Bayesian weights considered the quality of models’ reproduction of runoff (long-term average runoff, linear runoff trend over the time interval with available runoff observations, interannual and interdecadal variability). The quality of runoff characteristics reproduction by individual models in the CMIP6 ensemble varies most significantly for the long-term average runoff, runoff trend, and, to a lesser extent, for interannual variability. In the 21st century, the ensemble average runoff increases for most of the analyzed rivers, except for the Volga. This increase is more pronounced under scenarios with larger anthropogenic impacts. It is especially significant for the SSP5-8.5 scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, 5-8.5), under which the runoff increase trend from 2015 to 2100 relative to its current long-term average is (10 ± 4)% for the Ob, (16 ± 3)% for the Yenisei, (39 ± 7)% for the Lena, (36 ± 7)% for the Amur, and (18 ± 6)% for the Selenga. The primary reason for the change in ensemble average runoff in the 21st century in models under all SSP scenarios is the change in precipitation. Accounting for differences in model quality in reproducing river runoff on average for 2015–2100 reduces inter-model deviations relative to the corresponding values with uniform weighting of model results by 6–26%, depending on the SSP scenario and river basin.

An approach to estimating the dry deposition velocity of aerosol particles on the surfaces of Arctic regions, where snow-covered surfaces, open water surface, tundra and coniferous forest predominate, is proposed and numerically investigated. Optimal modeling conditions are proposed, taking into account the characteristic sizes and densities of aerosol particles involved in transport in the planetary boundary layer, and the interaction of air flows with the surface through the parameter u*, calculated using the WRF-ARW model. The proposed approach is compared with other known models and experimental data. The dependence of the dry deposition velocity obtained by the proposed approach on the diameter, density of aerosol particles and dynamic velocity u* for the surfaces in the Far North is estimated.

The data of measurements of air temperature profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) during the total solar eclipse on March 29, 2006 in Kislovodsk and at the Kislovodsk High-Mountain Scientific Station (KVNS) on the central shadow line are presented. The solar eclipse lasted from 14:08 to 16:27 local time, the total phase of the eclipse began at 15:15 and lasted 2:32. In development of the results obtained by us in our previous work, we compared the data on air temperature profiles at two points, Kislovodsk and KVNS. The influence of local conditions has been studied. It was shown that local conditions significantly affect both the amplitude of atmospheric pressure pulsations caused by a solar eclipse and their phase, as well as the nature of the change in the spectral density of air temperature with height in the range of periods corresponding to the duration of the solar eclipse. Based on the measurements of temperature profiles, the fluctuations of the atmospheric pressure difference at the level of the earth’s surface and at a certain height, up to which the temperature profiles were measured equal to 600 m, were reconstructed, caused by a solar eclipse, in coordinates: height – time has different trajectories in the case of Kislovodsk and KVNS. The difference in the trajectories of air temperature minima in Kislovodsk and at the KVNS determines both different delays in pressure minima relative to the beginning of the eclipse and time delays between surface pressure fluctuations at observation points as a whole. Also, a new method is proposed for determining the speed of ascending air currents using data on the altitude dependence of the time of reaching a minimum in temporal temperature variations caused by a solar eclipse. The changes in the spectral density of air are compared with height, the amplitude of the reconstructed atmospheric pressure pulsations in Kislovodsk and at the KVNS, and the speed of ascending air currents.

The article analyzes the fields of noctilucent clouds over the territory of the Russian Federation, recorded by a ground-based network of cameras using also aircraft photography, over the two nights in June 2021. It is demonstrated that aircraft photography can significantly improve the coverage of the territory of noctilucent clouds’ probable appearance. The detected noctilucent cloud fields are compared with model regions of water vapor condensation derived from satellite measurements of temperature and water vapor mixing ratio. Practical steps are proposed for the development of aircraft observations of noctilucent clouds.

In this work the accuracy of reconstructing the Black Sea circulation by using new approximations of nonlinear terms in the transport equations, ensuring the conservation of temperature and salinity to a power greater than two, is analyzed based on the results of forecast calculations. Three numerical experiments with differences in the schemes for calculating temperature and salinity are carried out. In the first experiment – traditional schemes are used to conserve of temperature and salinity in the first and second degrees; in the second one – the temperature is conserved in the first and fifth degrees, salinity in the first and third; in the third one – the temperature in the first and third, salinity in the first and fifth degrees. Calculations are performed on the basis of the MHI model with a resolution of 1.6 km and taking into account realistic atmospheric forcing for 2016. Validation of the results is carried out based on comparison of model fields with in-situ and satellite measurements of temperature and salinity in 2016. Analysis of mean and root mean square errors showed that new schemes for the advection-diffusion equations of heat and salt, ensuring the conservation of predictive parameters to a power greater than two, improve the accuracy of reconstructing the salinity in the Black Sea upper 100m layer throughout the year compared with traditional approximation. The root mean square errors in the salinity field are reduced by 15–20%, the thickness of the upper mixed layer in winter and the depth of the upper boundary of the thermocline layer in summer in the central part of the sea are modeled approximately 10% more accurately. Based on the results of three experiments, the smallest deviations from observational data are obtained when using approximations that ensure the conservation of temperature to the third power and salinity to the fifth power.

By the method of resonant fluorescence (RF) of chlorine atoms and iodine atoms, the rate constant of the reaction of a chlorine atom with hydrogen iodide at a temperature of 298 K. The values of the reaction constants measured by both methods turned out to be quite close. The role of this reaction in the chemistry of the troposphere above the surface of the oceans is discussed.