Vol 15, No 3 (2014)

The aim of that study was prospective students’ success rate prediction in case if they are enrolled at university. For this purpose different classification and prediction methods were used namely support vector machines (SVM), neural networks and fuzzy systems which were obtained by using genetic and bionic algorithms and their modifications. Firstly, meta-heuristic called Co-Operation of Biology Related Algorithms (COBRA), that has earlier demonstrated its usefulness on CEC’2013 real-valued optimization competition benchmark and its modification for solving constrained optimization problems, was applied to SVM-based classifiers design. Then genetic algorithm was used for neural networks and fuzzy logic systems automatic generation. Various benchmark classification problems were solved with those approaches. It was established that support vector machines, neural networks and fuzzy logic systems developed in that way outperform many alternative methods on mentioned benchmark classification problems. So the workability and usefulness of proposed classification or prediction algorithms were confirmed. After that for solving of prospective students’ success rate prediction problem, in case if they are enrolled at university, information about them obtained during the operational period of Admission Committee was gathered and preprocessed. Eventually it was established which kind of information about a prospective student is enough for determining whether he or she will or will not pass end of first semester exams in case of enrollment. Moreover, it should be noted that support vector machines generated by collective optimization method COBRA have shown the best results.

This article discusses the problem of nonparametric control of discrete-continuous process of BOF steel smelting. The problem of identifying objects with stochastic discrete - continuous nature of the process is also considered. Additionally, the problem of identification and management of multidimensional stochastic systems is investigated in a closed loop, i. e. in the form of a macroscopic object, including a system to - regulator. Moreover, the emphasis is not only on the presence of random noise in different channels of communication, but also on the lack of information about the course of the process. Special attention is paid to the case when the design is applied to control the impact of a real object in a distorted. The dual-process control scheme, in which the control circuit comprising operator saved but added external control loop that carries the features of dualism is proposed. This control scheme allows to increase the quality of management of the entire system as a whole significantly. Some results of numerical simulation of the two-loop circuit control are given. Some results of the modeling process of BOF steel smelting show that the process is conducted in the framework of technological regulations, however, it is not enough for quality control smelting process.

In the presented work the question of increase of reliability level of information systems is considered. The problem is solved by creation of mathematical model of information system, as the special case possessing increased requirements to level of reliability, the system of electronic document flow is taken. In this work the analysis of existing methods of an assessment of reliability level of information systems is carried out, the methods allowing to raise reliability level of information system at various operational phases of information system are also considered. Within the methods of an assessment of reliability level of information systems methods of forecasting of level of reliability of information system, and also probability of emergence of mistakes are considered at operation of information system. Within the carried-out work the authors have combined the algorithm of increase of reliability level of information system, in the conditions of need of continuous operation of information system on the basis of application of methods of mathematical modeling was created. The work of the combined method also includes the work of a dynamic method of an assessment of reliability level of information system which is the indicator of achievement of an optimum condition of reliability level of information system. The results of work can be applied to carry out pilot studies concerning ensuring information security, optimization of work of information systems.

The article presents a method of simulation and optimal control for rectification plants, containing technological furnaces and rectification columns. This complicated system is shown as a system with distributed parameters, as for static and dynamic modes simulation a mathematical formalism of differential equations in partial differential was applied. As a rule scientific literature deals with operation modes outcomes for single plants. Due to complicated mathematical formalism and computation investigations dealing with a number of objects with distributed parameters are infrequently. The optimal control tasks solutions for complicated plants are poorly shown in scientific literature A phenomenological approach was applied for mathematical model of heat processes in technological furnaces and separation processes in multicomponent mixtures for rectification columns. The model contains partial differential equitations for heat- and mass-exchange processes and hydrodynamics for flue gas flows in technological furnace and mass-exchange equitations for rectification column. Described processes occurs with recirculation flow interaction and heat-exchange processes' boundary conditions for rectification columns are described in ordinary derivatives. The conditions are given at the opposite ends of the plant. The optimal control modes solutions were formulated an optimal control task for desired product and necessary conditions for optimality. Due control functions are included in the main boundary derivatives, control variations in the range and on the boundary are dependent, this works on dual problem structure. Arguments of variational calculus was applied. Necessary conditions for optimality are containing original boundary-value problem conjugated relatively to the Lagrangians. Original and boundary tasks solution determines optimal control and technological processes parameters. The article gives numerical outcomes with control of flow of raw materials in debutanizer plant for sulfuric acid alkylation of isobutane with butenes. A numeric algorithm was worked out. The peculiarity of the algorithm is solving a boundary conditions tasks for some parameters at the opposite ends of the area. Moreover Lagrangians for conjugated system are given at a finite time. Optimal characteristics of heat-exchange process of desired product in the dephlagmator and cube were obtained.

The problem of increasing the speed, stability and efficiency of known and emerging algorithms for training large artificial neural networks is considered. To solve this problem it is proposed to create the most balanced multi-criteria performance comparison of different learning algorithms, enter a numerical estimate of the learning parameters and systematically carry out work to improve them. It is argued that resistance training of neural networks is an analogue of the assessment procedure of the condition number of matrices of linear algebra. We propose a measure of stability training, given the connection between this indicator with the computational complexity of learning algorithms, as well as with a number of examples on which the algorithm is efficient. We discuss the effect of increasing the stability by supplementing the training sample synthetic image examples of “your”. The optimum amount of additional synthetic examples, the addition of which can reduce the number of examples in the training set is provided. A block diagram of a promising means of training neural network converters, which introduced the third machine reproduction examples image of “Its” is given. To control the number of synthetic examples, it is proposed to create a table of restrictions for the first machines based on expert opinion.

In the survey, it is shown that estimation and reliability analysis should be performed at each step, create a failover. Due to the fact that there is no single approach, methods and parameters for estimating the reliability of Software, there are many models and algorithms, tested virtually, but has several disadvantages. The main drawback of all models is "specialization ". Models are always tied to any one phase of software development, and sometimes have a purely theoretical value due to the fact that they must be used the data obtained at other stages of development, and the authors of such models usually consider this fact of secondary importance. The most promising approach is aimed at creating some hybrid model, which includes all the advantages of a well-validated models and algorithms. Existing models and algorithms need to be modified so that the output of one model became the input for the other; to provide a unifying parameters, units of measure conversion, normalization of data and satisfying the current requirements and trends, such as object-oriented analysis and programming. From this review we can see that it is very important to use as much a priori information before beginning each phase of creation, as this will provide the most appropriate and accurate results. The analysis of methods, models and methodologies in the field of creation of reliable, fault-tolerant (Software) is carried out. Attempts to systematize and unify the existing methodology are made. The multiple steps involved in the creation and architectural aspect within the entire life-cycle fault-tolerant software are taken into account.

The paper considers the questions of energy transfer in a charge/discharge autonomous power supply device. Power circuit of considered charge/discharge device is based on the scheme of reversing up/down converter with the switching mode of power transistors at zero-voltage that ensures high efficiency of device. In the course of analysis of electromagnetic processes in the converter, mathematical expressions that describe the transfer of energy, from the side one to the side two of the reversible converter have been obtained. Using the obtained mathematical expressions, a method and algorithm for calculating RMS current through elements of the power converter circuit using parameters of the power circuit elements and parameters of energy transformation, in particular, using reverse displacement current of a choke, providing switching mode of power transistors at zero voltage have been developed. Correlation between RMS current through a choke and power transistors, and value of reverse replacement current of a choke for a number of modes are given graphically. All correlations were obtained at fixed power at the side two and variation of voltage value at the side one of converter. Analysis of obtained correlations has shown growth of RMS current through power circuit elements of the converter at increasing reverse displacement current of a choke, which corresponds the theoretical requirement. Developed method, algorithm and program for the calculation of RMS current through elements of the power circuit of converter can be used for solving design problems of the charge/discharge device which based on the scheme of reversing up/down converter with the switching mode of power transistors at zero-voltage, and for solving the problem of minimizing the total static and dynamic energy losses in the converter.

This paper presents a description of the improvement of the technology of manufacturing parts and assemblies of aerospace production using computer-aided design and process control. Theoretical framework and algorithms for constructing process of manufacturing parts and assemblies to the aerospace industry using different connection methods of heat-resistant materials, such as diffusion bonding, designed on the basis of conducted theoretical and experimental studies, the authors proposed a patented process connection “Connection method superalloy cobalt-based ceramic based on silicon nitride” and tooling “Installation for metal products”, as well as obtaining registration in the database of the Russian Federation “Attributive database to create processes for production of aerospace components manufacturing diffusion bonding” and “Attributive database processing equipment, tools and equipment for machining aerospace parts production ”. During the execution of the works were solved the following problems: the algorithm of the adaptive management process of manufacturing parts and assemblies to the aerospace industry using diffusion welding in real time created: the database of materials used for the manufacture of parts and assemblies of aerospace manufacturing, the database of equipment, accessories and modes of machining parts different sizes and configurations, and the database of equipment, accessories and modes of obtaining permanent link of dissimilar materials by diffusion bonding. Based on the results, and created databases, provides guidance for the manufacture of one-piece ceramic-metal assemblies used in the aerospace industry. As an example, the developed method provides design technology of metal-ceramic assembly - the turbine rotor of the turbopump assembly. The proposed method for computer-aided design and manufacturing process control components and assemblies greatly simplifies the organization of work and reduces the pre-production in the manufacture of high quality components and assemblies of aerospace manufacturing.

Difference equations arise in different areas of mathematics. Difference equations in conjunction with a method of generation functions give a efficient technique for studying the enumerative problems in the combinatorial analyses. Another source of difference equations is discretization of differential equations. Methods of discretization a differential equation is an important part of the theory of difference schemes, and also lead to difference equations [1]. In the case of implicit difference schemes its solvability presents a non-trivial question. In [2] investigated the stability of a two-layer homogeneous linear difference scheme with constant coefficients. In [3] to study the stability of multilayer homogeneous difference schemes applied theory of amoebas of algebraic hypersurfaces and a formula for the solution of the Cauchy problem in terms of its fundamental solution. In [4] for the two-dimensional case is investigated difference analog of the boundary value problem for Hormander polynomial differential operator. We investigate the solvability of difference equations with initial-boundary conditions of Riquier and consider them as implicit multi-layer difference schemes. Since this question reduces to solvability of systems of linear equations, we use linear algebra to give necessary and sufficient conditions and a simple sufficient condition for solvability in terms of coefficients of a polynomial difference operator. We show the relation of these results to the elimination algorithm for systems of algebraic equations with band matrices. The results can be applied for studying solvability of difference schemes and construction of monomial bases in quotients of the polynomial ring.

We consider the problem of forecasting the degradation process of spacecraft's solar arrays according to their available parameter changes measured together with the corresponding parameters of solar activity during the fulfilment of the real spacecraft's mission. The application of ANN-based predictors is proposed because of their generalization ability. In this paper, predictors automated design with self-adaptive evolutionary algorithms is suggested because of the ANN efficiency dependence on the choice of an effective structure and the successful tuning of weight coefficients. The adaptation of evolutionary algorithms is implemented on the base of the algorithms' selfconfiguration. In self-configuration technique, setting variants were used instead of the adjusting real parameters, namely types of selection, crossover, population control and level of mutation. Each of these has its own initial probability distribution which is changed as the algorithm executes. ANN-based predictors are automatically designed with the self-configured genetic algorithm and the self-configured genetic programming algorithm. In both cases the most informative features are selected for each neural network. Besides, the self-configuring genetic programming is used for the automated design of ensembles of ANN-based predictors. The performance of developed algorithms for automated design of ANN-based predictors is estimated on real-world data and the most perspective approach is determined. Self-configuring genetic programming algorithm for automated ANN design has the best performance among non-ensemble techniques. Self-configuring genetic programming for the automated design of ensembles presents the best result among all considered approaches.

The development of seismic network in Krasnoyarsk region and Tiva republic arouse the interest to earth crust structure model for local earthquake data processing. The seismic waves travel time hodograph as 1-dimensional model of media structure is widely used in seismological practice. In the present paper the results of calculation of the first arrival times of P-wave hodograph for Tiva region are presented. Calculations are based on the block-layered velocity model of media obtained earlier as a result of seismic research of Altay-Sayan folded area data. A brief description of earth crust and upper mantle velocity model for south part of Krasnoyarsk region and Tiva republic is given. The structure of Tiva block is supposed to be 3-layered with horizontal boundaries. Consolidated part of the earth crust is characterized by linear dependence of wave velocity on depth. Values of model parameters were obtained by averaging of DSS and CWME velocity curves. Analysis of the wave pattern in the framework of the media model is carried out. In the paper an algorithm to calculate of seismic rays from sources positioned in different depths within the earth crust is discussed. The algorithm is based on analytical solutions derived from the general formulation of the direct kinematic problem of seismology in the ray approximation. The refracted and head waves propagation in the environment model is considered. Resulted hodograph is compared to that applied recently to regional seismic data. Comparison of head wave hodograph allowed to reveal a systematic error due to a difference in the earth crust thickness. Comparison of refracted P-wave hodograph with experimental travel time catalogue from industrial explosion shows a good agreement. A way to insert station corrections into hodograph originated from low velocity sediments under the seismic stations is proposed. Obtained hodograph is offered to use in hypocenter location problems.

The author presents the new real-time algorithm for hand gestures recognizing on a video sequence, based on the color clustering principles, interframe differences for video sequences and contour analysis principal. The first chapter of this paper contains the research of related work, which is based on Viola-Jones algorithm, the search for the skin color, wavelet transformation, localization of the centroid of the image, etc. The second chapter describes the new gesture recognition approach, and third includes experiment results. A proposed gesture recognition algorithm resolVes two tasks: gesture localization and gesture recognition. The gesture localization task is resolved by compilation results of the image segmentation by human skin color clustering principle and motion search on the video sequences. The feature extraction task is resolved by invariant gesture contour moments analysis. A presented approach does not use any tutorial images. Gesture domain is not close and can be set up during initialization process. Key performance indicators (KPI) of the proposed approach are number of processed video sequence items per time unit and gesture recognition stability mark. The analysis of the performance of the proposed algorithm shows that the performance is at a high level. An average frame rate, which can function designed system is about 50 fps, which even exceeds the ability of the human visual perception. Recognition stability depends on environment condition changes, but the number of recognition errors can be reduced to a minimum by video device calibrating. The quality of recognition is 96%, which is a good indicator for such purpose algorithms. The KPI analysis, based on experimental data, is shown the applicability of the proposed approach in real-time gesture recognition systems, based on different hardware platforms. This fact allows to use the algorithm primarily in the aerospace industry to build effective management systems based on gestural interfaces.

In the theory of analytic functions of K. Weierstrass the concept of the analytical element (power series in C converging in a circle) and its analytic continuation are the main. The method of power series expansion at another, series proposed by Weierstrass, fundamentally solves the problem of analytic continuation, proved ineffective in a particular application. In the works of Hadamard, Mittag-Leffler, Le Roy, Lindelof the so-called summation methods that give good results for the analytic continuation of power series in the case of the star domains of the complex plane have been proposed. In the works of Arakelian a description of the areas, in which the restoration of the analytic continuation of the analytical element with a fixed center is possible by using the universal matrix methods of summation is received. This work is about the analytical continuation of multiple power series in the class offields of synthesis of spiral. Using one-dimensional matrix methods of summation of power series constructed multidimensional matrix methods of summation for multiple power series, which allows you to construct an analytic continuation of this number in the maximum spiral region called (m,α)-the star of the Mittag-Leffler function f defined by this row. This approbation built multidimensional matrix methods of summation of multiple power series is carried out using one-dimensional geometric progression. That is the domains of the complex plane, there is at least one infinite matrix "summarizing" all analytic elements with a given center. These domains were spiral relative to some point and were named Arakelian domains efficient summability.

The main indicators of the quality of space vehicles (SV) are their reliability and lifetime (LT) in the orbit, and a significant role in this plays a temperature mode inside of SV, where are the devices. And one of their stable work is to create a specific thermal regime in the volume of construction, what is the thermal control system in which the heat mode is provided with fan provided by thermal relay at a given temperature. The main indicators of the quality of SV is their reliability and LT in orbit, and a significant role in this plays a temperature mode inside of SV, where are the devices. While circulating in the system of temperature control of heat-transfer fluid, for example, nitrogen, transmits heat from the cold surface of the satellite that radiate excess heat into space. At downturn of temperature of a working body under the specified fan is switched off, resulting who in the absence of convection - to a significant increase in thermal resistance between the radiation surface and internal displacement of the surface of the body, and, ultimately, prevented further decrease of the temperature. As a result of improving the control systems, along with the improvement of other life support systems in the LT satellites to date, is more than 10 years, and by 2016 planned LT up to 15 years.

In this paper the possibility of improving the fretting wear resistance and anti-wear properties of fat in connection with the introduction of solid additives is considered. The topic work is to evaluate the effectiveness of lubricants with ultra-dispersive additives to reduce fretting-fatigue processes. The mechanism of fretting-fatigue consists of processes such as fretting corrosion and mechanical fatigue. Their interaction leads to the damage of the contact surfaces and leads to a drastic reduction in the fatigue endurance limit of parts. Fretting fatigue damage can occur in the bolt, pin, key and spline connections, surfaces of the parts, which were planted with interference, on surfaces of the shafts, clutches and other parts of friction unit. The results of investigation of grease on fretting-wear resistance, the distribution of the amount of wear from time are presented. The analysis of the state of the friction tracks and changeover of surface roughness after applying lubricant with solid additive is given. The experimental results suggest that the introduction of ultradisperse powder mixture of diamond and graphite in grease reduces the formation of fatigue cracks and improves the quality of the surface parts of friction units. This increases the actual contact area and reduces contact pressure. The values of tangential and normal stresses up to 18-20 % and the action of maximum shearing stress will move deeper into the material under the area of contact are also reduced. The application of lubricants with similar additives can increase the service life period of the mechanism twice as much. Test results can be used to select the lubricant used for the friction units operating in the mode of oscillation.

The paper presents the experimental results of sounding a wet sand-air interface using a laboratory model of a borehole GPR. For this purpose a box filled moist sand moisturized with brine was built. The box was located in a laboratory room on a concrete screed. Radar antennas were housed in a waterproof plastic pipe on the bottom of the box. Radar antennas were made in the form of dipoles with extended bandwidth. The transmitting antenna was connected to the generator, the receiving antenna to the stroboscopic oscilloscope. With variation of thickness of a sand layer over the antennas and the distance between the transmitting and receiving antennas the signals of receiving pulses were recorded. An attenuation coefficient of amplitude and propagation velocity of broadband pulse were measured. It is shown that the theoretical model borehole GPR, created by authors using the method of discrete sources, well predicts a temporary shape and time delay of the pulse reflected from the boundary layer. A method for determining the thickness of the layer of wet sand from the measured time delay of the pulse reflected from the boundary layer at different distances between the transmitting and receiving antennas radar was proposed. This method allows to determine the distance to the interface with a relative error of 2.2 % without the involvement of a priori information on the electro physical properties of the medium in the layer. The results of this study allow you to plan and start bench testing of prototypes borehole probes.

Electron beam welding is used extensively to produce essential machine parts. The control of the basic beam parameters - beam power or beam current at constant accelerating voltage, welding speed, current of focusing lens and distance between electron gun and welded sample surface - is not enough to obtain at most of the regimes sound welds. Control of the focus position using analysis of the high frequency component of the current, collected by plasma, at periodic interactions on the beam (the oscillation of the beam or modulation of the focusing current) could be a way for the formation of non-defect welds at these conditions. The statistical analysis of weld geometry is shown.

The state priorities of the Russian Federation in the field of space activity set long-range goals to find new approaches in management for the space industry. The uniqueness and complexity of space production, exact resource limits of its life cycle stages define necessity of project approach to the whole enterprise management system, including personnel management subsystem. The article provides a description of some of the conceptual and methodological aspects of personnel management subsystem innovation preparedness to implementation of rocket-space enterprise projects. An integrated typology of rocket-space enterprises projects is proposed as a base for selection and application of project management instruments and technologies. This typology also contains main projects of the development, production and operation of spacecraft and systems, auxiliary projects (logistics, it, HR, PR, marketing, communications and etc.). The personnel management system innovation preparedness of project-oriented enterprise - a state-of-the-art structural-organizational, functional, competence potential of personnel management system, that ensure development, testing and scaling innovation, target project performance of the enterprise. Decomposition of levels of the personnel management system innovation preparedness to implementation of rocket-space enterprise projects includes personnel Department’s availability for managing own personnel management projects implementation as well as personnel support for key industrial projects, consisting in the development and implementation of business process management commands projects. The implementation of innovative preparedness identification and assessment is proposed to accomplish according to the parameters: structural, functional and information system availability management. The article presents the characteristics of the personnel management system innovation preparedness in terms of project management by the example of public corporation “Information satellite systems" of a name of academician M.F. Reshetnev (Zheleznogorsk, Krasnoyarsk region) - the world leader in the field of creation of means of telecommunication and space communication. The model for assessment of the personnel management system innovation preparedness to implementation projects, stated in the article, is based on decomposition of levels of innovation preparedness and proposes a serial expert evaluation on individual criteria and further integral convolution. Conclusions of the evaluation results give an opportunity to determine “weak points”, endangering for achievement of project goals, and justify actions on their elimination. The usage of this methodological toolkit at rocket-space enterprise, on the assumption of its integration into a unified system of project management, allows to fulfill the requirements of customers by functional, quality, cost and time characteristics of modern satellite systems.

It is shown on the basis of integral and space monitoring factors that formed the industrial competitiveness policy of Russia, its innovation policy should focus on the desired fields strategic breakthrough in space and rocket, which is possible to achieve or exceed the global technological level. Russian economy is inferior to the level of innovation activity of the global community with a competitive industry. Its innovative activity is directly dependent on the size of the enterprise. Russian industrial enterprises the share of non-technological innovation is low, lagging behind the European countries. Economic data in enterprises space industry and other sectors in eight federal districts of Russia, in the Siberian Federal District, Krasnoyarsk Territory, the top 10 regions, including CFD-TSCHER, 45 leading enterprises, the author's conclusions confirmed that for the expected structural changes in modern high competitive areas, achieving a high level of competitiveness of the space industry in the basis of analytical estimates should be of critical technologies and system management tool that gets in the world called “Technology Platforms”. The author shows that there is a need to develop an integrated management approach and a corresponding innovative tools that allow a single system to consider the priorities of different levels and the scale and stage of the innovation cycle of both the state and business. According to analytical estimates by the author in the structure of the total profits of enterprises of extractive industries priority belongs to the production of energy minerals. Reveals the author's scientific and practical approach, methodology and applications of modern tools in relation to the competitiveness of Russian policy in the industry as a whole, and astronautics, rocketry particularly conducive to modernity demanded structural changes, allowing an economic point of view on the proposed criteria in the comparative analytical characteristics of these critical technologies with Russian technology platforms and technology initiatives of the international community with a high level of competitiveness of the rocket and space industry and economic system of the country as a whole. New versions of the management of the modern knowledge-based competitive technological areas, such as in aerospace industry, and structural changes in them will require the development of new methodologies and tools to solve actual fundamental economic problems.